The AFL season is heating up, and with five rounds left, the race for the top two spots is wide open. Sydney's sudden slide has opened up the race, and Essendon's unexpected impact has shaken up the wildcard race. The Run Home analyzes each club's remaining fixtures and predicts the rest of the year, ahead of the AFL's first 10-team finals series.
The Top Two Race
Sydney Swans (13-5, 128.3%) are still favored to finish second, despite their recent losses. Their strong percentage edge over Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne is like another win. However, Hawthorn (12-5-1, 118.4%) has a real shot at finishing second, as they don't care about percentage and have an easy run, except for Round 22 against Brisbane. Adelaide Crows (12-6, 117.2%)'s win over Sydney has opened up second spot, but they're still unlikely to pinch it due to Sydney's percentage edge.
The Wildcard Race
Geelong (10-8, 116.2%) and St Kilda (8-10, 104%) are in a tight battle for the final wildcard spot. Geelong's win over St Kilda on Thursday night has kept them in the hunt, but their path to the top six is extremely narrow. St Kilda, on the other hand, has a clear path to the finals with a projected 11 wins, and could make it on percentage.
The Bottom Two
Essendon (2-16, 67.9%) and Richmond (2-16, 61.7%) are both struggling, with Essendon having the hardest remaining fixture difficulty. Richmond has a slightly easier run home, but Essendon is more likely to find a third win. The Bombers are projected to finish 18th, while Richmond is projected to finish 17th.
The Rest
Fremantle (16-2, 142%) is set to be minor premiers for the first time since 2015, with a projected 19.65 wins. The Western Bulldogs (11-7, 93.2%) are almost locked into the finals, with a projected 13.5 wins. Collingwood (10-7-1, 105.6%) has a two-and-a-half win margin with five weeks left, and is projected to finish 9th.
In conclusion, the AFL season is far from over, and the race for the top two spots and the wildcard positions is wide open. With five rounds left, anything can happen, and the remaining fixtures will play a crucial role in determining the final ladder positions.
